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Come April 10nth , The shipment number report for the month of March was announced by Almond Board, 190 Million Lbs of Almonds shipped worldwide despite the high prices, these numbers are about 25% higher on YOY Basis, Last year March month figures stood at 151 Million Lbs. This was possible largely due to the ease in the port congestion in California. India was up by 60%, China 149%, UAE 110% , Germany 33% , Spain 28% with the exception of USA itself as -1.33%.


YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:
   1.248 billion pounds compared to  1.370 billion pounds last year for a decrease of 8.91%.


CROP RECEIPTS:
   1.862 billion pounds compared to 2.003 billion pounds last year for a decrease of 7.05%.

 

Delhi/North Indian markets reacted sharply to the India’s numbers of about 331 as NP In shell and 42 containers of Kernels, The market lost about 5% from its highest level and at the time of writing this commentary Delhi traders were quoting @ Rs.810/kg for FAQ quality with no buyers in sight, A SENTIMENTAL KNEE JERK REACTION. In fact with in 1 hour of report being made public the prices of STD’s in California rose by 15 cents/Lbs citing excellent shipment numbers causing further supply squeeze. Indian markets as interacted with traders are in bearish trend and the prices might drop below Rs.800/Kg by Tuesday , this will be an excellent opportunity for LOCAL buyers to cover for their 3-4 months inventory positions as there is for sure very less ALMONDS AVAILABLE in CALIFORNIA especially NP varieties of which India is the buyer.

I personally think Rs.800/kg would become the base price till this Diwali/Festival season, I am also sure that these prices will have an impact on the demand from consumers and we would be most of the FMCG/Snacking consumers fining either the substitute or will reduce their intake quantities to match up there budget, Further it might help Cashew Industry ( if the prices remain competitive then last year, largely for Cashew Broken ) as it will spurt up the demand of Kaju Katli  and other Cashew related sweets, cakes, confectionery and Biscuits.

 

We would also see demand going down in the next 2-3 months  as it usually happens , It will be a test of the Almonds market of its sustenance level.

 

 

Let’s Hope of the best. 

Disclaimer

These deal indications are only advisory in nature and may not be true in 100% cases. Read more....