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India Market Update – March 18th ,2015

 

It’s been a while you received the update as most of us have been busy with Gulfood , followed by Bloom.

 

Since last two months markets in India have been bullish to stable basis the supply squeeze largely due to port strike where in there has been inordinate delay in shipments .

 

Market prices have been around Rs.775-800/Kg for NP ,FAQ to Hand Picked qualities for Kernels and Rs.21700-22000/40Kg/70% SS basis for Private Packers for Almond In shell’s, 22500-23000/40 Kg for BD assumption that the crackouts are around 73%.

 

Currency: INR in the last two weeks has again depreciated by about 2% and is trading around 62.50 levels against the green buck making imports more costlier.

GULFOOD UPDATE: This years’ Gulfood was visited by many first timers riding on bullish enthusiasm of entire year on nuts, besides the Old Timers, in fact Gulfood has become such an important event for most of the Indian traders and they really look forward to this MELA and I think It’s a good opportunity for our colleagues from California to meet buyers from across Indian sub continent at the one platform , which besides saving time and money also helps in getting the very important feedback on the qualities/quantities shipped for the current crop ,bloom information along with the outlook on Australian Crop. This year as anticipated there were buyers demanding some good quantities which made most of the sellers bullish , I believe some good business got traded though with caution in the price bracket of 3.40 to 3.50 FAS levels.

 

Most of the discussions were centred on the bloom, port strikes and India’s demand. I think the supplier community should participate more in numbers as Gulfood attracts lot of Indians across the business segments though 5 days seems to be very tiring.

 

SHIPMENT REPORT ; The India shipment numbers of about 297 Containers were a somewhat high against the market’s expectations and with about 84 Million Lbs of Almonds with 5 months to go for new Californian crop and about 36 million Lbs of Australian also expected , the Indian markets seems to be touching new volumes despite high prices which shows the maturity of Indian consumers. Initial reaction was of bearish sentiment with markets reacted by discounts of 2-3% but in few days time recovered and presently is in supply crunch, March month as most of us are aware is the Financial Closing month of India and markets have to square off their books so are under cash crunch but despite all it seems the shortage of immediate supply is holding the markets with strength.

 

The question is how much of the cargo has actually been shipped on board/sailed against the reported numbers.

It would be worthwhile to see the March shipment numbers report as we would have reports of shipments from Australian Crop also, The coming 2-3 months would be critical as the summers are approaching with supplies touching Indian shores both from Ca and Australian.

 

CASHEW SUMMIT; March 14 & 15 was the Cashew summit in Mangalore wherein more than 1200 delegates participated to celebrate the Golden Jubilee of KCMA (Karnataka Cashew Manufacturers Association), The association has about 250 manufacturers having annual turnover of 400 Million US$ , KCMA has taken the leaf out of ABC’s book to market Cashews as a healthy nut, looking at the growth of Almond’s acceptability with Indian consumer, during the summits , attended by me, there was lot of discussions on Almond Buying , As stated earlier through my updates that the Almonds becomes a naturally complimenting nut for Cashew processors across the coastal belt of India in case of uniform taxes which Government of India has announced to implement by April 1st 2016. New Buyer segment......

 

Further the concerns of the Cashew Industry are very similar on tax distortions to Indian Almond Industry, Even in GST the rumour is that Nuts be taxed at very high rate i.e. 27% and I think the Almond Board should work together with the Cashew Associations and other related intuitions to bring Dry Fruits and Nuts in the lower tax slabs, making it more competitive and increasing the volumes.

 

Coming Back on Almonds, India has largely become a matured 200 Million Lbs of consuming market , again we need to mention the ABC’s awareness campaign across India being run from 3 years or so which has helped create a sustainable consumer demand for snacking, we need to push this as an ingredient also which will further boost India’s demand.

 

Cheers till Next Update.....

Disclaimer

These deal indications are only advisory in nature and may not be true in 100% cases. Read more....